MLB Regression Report

Monday, June 29, 2026

13 games · 13 with market lines · Updated 3:07 PM ET

65Watch
Model EdgeCold Team Discount
SD @ CHC·8:05 PM ET·Wrigley Field
SD
San Diego Padres
50%50%
CHC
Chicago Cubs
+130
+101
G. Canning
-157
-101
S. Imanaga
⚡ Strong ValueSD +130model +101 · 11pp edge
46Mild Watch
Model Edge
LAD @ ATH·9:40 PM ET·Sutter Health Park
LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
42%58%
ATH
Athletics
-156
+137
E. Lauer
+129
-137
G. Jump
⚡ Strong ValueATH +129model -137 · 14pp edge
45Mild Watch
Model Edge
LAA @ SEA·9:40 PM ET·T-Mobile Park
LAA
Los Angeles Angels
45%55%
SEA
Seattle Mariners
+170
+123
R. Johnson
-208
-123
G. Kirby
⚡ Strong ValueLAA +170model +123 · 12pp edge
32Pass
Model Edge
MIA @ COL·8:40 PM ET·Coors Field
MIA
Miami Marlins
48%52%
COL
Colorado Rockies
-144
+110
S. Alcantara
+119
-110
S. Sullivan
✓ Value BetCOL +119model -110 · 7pp edge
31Pass
Model Edge
PIT @ PHI·6:40 PM ET·Citizens Bank Park
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
52%48%
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
-108
-108
B. Ashcraft
-112
+108
A. Nola
✓ Value BetPIT -108model -108 · 5pp edge
29Pass
Hidden Pitcher Value
NYM @ TOR·7:07 PM ET·Rogers Centre
NYM
New York Mets
46%54%
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
+108
+116
S. Manaea
-131
-116
T. Yesavage

The market (-131) and model (-116) are roughly aligned — 3pp within normal variance. Key signals: Hidden Pitcher Value.

26Pass
Model Edge
WSH @ BOS·7:10 PM ET·Fenway Park
WSH
Washington Nationals
41%59%
BOS
Boston Red Sox
+144
+142
M. Mikolas
-175
-142
R. Suarez
✓ Value BetWSH +144model +142 · 5pp edge
24Pass
Model Edge
TEX @ CLE·7:10 PM ET·Progressive Field
TEX
Texas Rangers
45%55%
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
+124
+123
T. Alexander
-149
-123
P. Messick
✓ Value BetTEX +124model +123 · 5pp edge
24Pass
Hidden Pitcher Value
SF @ AZ·9:40 PM ET·Chase Field
SF
San Francisco Giants
44%56%
AZ
Arizona Diamondbacks
+119
+128
T. Mahle
-144
-128
E. Rodriguez

The market (-144) and model (-128) are roughly aligned — 3pp within normal variance. Key signals: Hidden Pitcher Value.

23Pass
Model Edge
MIN @ HOU·8:10 PM ET·Daikin Park
MIN
Minnesota Twins
46%54%
HOU
Houston Astros
+118
+118
Z. Matthews
-142
-118
P. Lambert
✓ Value BetMIN +118model +118 · 5pp edge
13Pass
DET @ NYY·7:05 PM ET·Yankee Stadium
DET
Detroit Tigers
45%55%
NYY
New York Yankees
+113
+122
C. Mize
-136
-122
R. Weathers

The market (-136) and model (-122) are roughly aligned — 3pp within normal variance.

11Pass
CWS @ BAL·6:35 PM ET·Oriole Park at Camden Yards
CWS
Chicago White Sox
45%55%
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
+114
+122
S. Burke
-137
-122
S. Baz

The market (-137) and model (-122) are roughly aligned — 3pp within normal variance.

6Pass
CIN @ MIL·7:40 PM ET·American Family Field
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
44%56%
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
+114
+129
N. Lodolo
-137
-129
R. Gasser

The market (-137) and model (-129) are roughly aligned — 1pp within normal variance.