MLB Regression Report

Value Bets ≥5pp23 bets tracked

Win Rate

52%

12W – 11L

ROI

+15.4%

+$355 on $100/bet

Strong Value ≥10pp15 bets tracked

Win Rate

33%

5W – 10L

ROI

+2.0%

+$30 on $100/bet

Cumulative P&L

Running profit/loss assuming $100 bet on each flagged game

Results by Filter

W–L record and cumulative P&L across all filter types · always shows full date range

Filter	Value (5–9pp)	Strong (≥10pp)	All Value (≥5pp)
All	12–11+$355	5–10+$30	17–21+$385
Mild Watch+	8–5+$474	5–10+$30	13–15+$504
Watch+	2–0+$301	3–3+$224	5–3+$525
Strong Watch	—	—	—
Model Edge	12–11+$355	5–10+$30	17–21+$385
Pitcher Mirage	3–2+$157	1–2-$41	4–4+$116
Hidden Pitcher Value	4–1+$411	0–1-$100	4–2+$311
Bullpen Fatigue	—	—	—
Cold Team Discount	0–1-$100	1–1+$18	1–2-$82

Bet History

Completed games where the model had ≥5pp edge · ⚠ = prediction after first pitch

38 games

Date	Matchup	Bet	Market	Edge	Signals	Result	P&L
Jun 28	COL @ MIN	COL⚠	+143	6pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 28	PHI @ NYM	NYM⚠	+106	5pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 28	HOU @ DET	HOU⚠	+247	27pp	Model Edge	W	+$247
Jun 28	TEX @ TOR	TOR⚠	+106	7pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 28	CIN @ PIT	CIN⚠	+620	32pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 28	WSH @ BAL	WSH⚠	+371	23pp	Model Edge	W	+$371
Jun 28	LAD @ SD	SD⚠	+670	41pp	Model EdgeCold Team Discount	L	-$100
Jun 28	ATL @ SF	ATL⚠	+331	37pp	Model EdgePitcher Mirage	L	-$100
Jun 28	CHC @ MIL	CHC⚠	+139	5pp	Model Edge	W	+$139
Jun 28	KC @ CWS	KC⚠	+114	5pp	Model EdgePitcher Mirage	W	+$114
Jun 27	ATH @ LAA	LAA⚠	+101	6pp	Model EdgeHidden Pitcher Value	W	+$101
Jun 27	ATL @ SF	SF⚠	+135	13pp	Model Edge	W	+$135
Jun 27	LAD @ SD	SD⚠	+118	5pp	Model EdgeCold Team Discount	L	-$100
Jun 27	MIA @ STL	MIA⚠	+109	5pp	Model EdgeHidden Pitcher Value	W	+$109
Jun 27	CHC @ MIL	CHC⚠	+162	8pp	Model EdgeHidden Pitcher Value	W	+$162
Jun 27	COL @ MIN	COL⚠	+139	8pp	Model EdgePitcher MirageHidden Pitcher Value	W	+$139
Jun 27	WSH @ BAL	WSH⚠	+159	10pp	Model EdgePitcher Mirage	W	+$159
Jun 27	AZ @ TB	AZ⚠	+158	12pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 27	PHI @ NYM	NYM⚠	+123	7pp	Model Edge	W	+$123
Jun 27	CIN @ PIT	CIN⚠	+113	6pp	Model Edge	W	+$113
Jun 27	HOU @ DET	DET⚠	+109	7pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 26	ATL @ SF	SF⚠	+139	11pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 26	LAD @ SD	SD⚠	+118	12pp	Model EdgeCold Team Discount	W	+$118
Jun 26	MIA @ STL	MIA⚠	+104	6pp	Model EdgePitcher Mirage	W	+$104
Jun 26	COL @ MIN	COL⚠	+143	6pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 26	AZ @ TB	AZ⚠	+243	19pp	Model EdgePitcher MirageHidden Pitcher Value	L	-$100
Jun 26	TEX @ TOR	TEX⚠	+115	5pp	Model Edge	W	+$115
Jun 26	WSH @ BAL	WSH⚠	+406	36pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 25	NYY @ BOS	NYY⚠	-115	7pp	Model EdgePitcher Mirage	L	-$100
Jun 25	PHI @ WSH	WSH⚠	+139	12pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 25	ATH @ SF	SF⚠	-132	5pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 25	KC @ TB	KC⚠	+123	6pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 24	ATH @ SF	ATH⚠	+109	10pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 24	AZ @ STL	AZ⚠	+113	7pp	Model Edge	W	+$113
Jun 24	PHI @ WSH	WSH⚠	+153	15pp	Model Edge	L	-$100
Jun 24	KC @ TB	KC⚠	+119	7pp	Model EdgePitcher MirageHidden Pitcher Value	L	-$100
Jun 24	SEA @ PIT	PIT⚠	+123	9pp	Model Edge	W	+$123
Jun 24	CHC @ NYM	NYM⚠	-112	5pp	Model Edge	L	-$100